Outlook
Part of Retail media outlook: a framework, not a forecast
Retail media market data: how to quote IAB UK's £3.8 billion
How to quote IAB UK's 2025 retail media spend figure: its UK scope, restated base and what it cannot say about England or retailer revenue.
One published number keeps being used for a question it does not answer. IAB UK's retail media spend figure for 2025 is a historical UK estimate, so it cannot stand in for an England market value, an England growth rate or a retailer revenue estimate for 2027. Quoting it correctly means keeping its scope, date and unit.
This is a bounded desk review dated 8 September 2026, covering retailer or marketplace-controlled advertising inventory. It is not a market census, investment forecast or study of retailer merchandise sales. No proprietary spending dataset was obtained.
What to take away
- IAB UK put UK retail media advertising spend at £3.8 billion in 2025, up 18% on its restated prior-year estimate.
- That is a historical UK figure, not an England outlook, and it describes spend, not retailer revenue.
- IAB UK changed its methodology and restated 2024, so the new series cannot be reconciled with earlier editions.
- No England-specific retail media market value for 2027 appears in the public sources checked, and no England growth rate either.
- Quote the figure with its publisher, date, geography and unit, or leave it out.
What the figure is
IAB UK's Digital Adspend 2025 public release, dated 3 March 2026, reports UK advertising-investment research undertaken with Oliver Wyman. Its retail media definition concerns advertising within retailer or marketplace digital properties. The headline is £3.8 billion for 2025, up 18% on the restated prior-year estimate.
UK retail media spend 2025
- £3.8bnUK retail-media ad spend 2025
- 18%rise on restated prior-year estimate
- 3 March 2026IAB UK release date
- 2024restated, not reconcilable
The member-only full report was not accessed, so everything here rests on the public release. Preserve the estimate's method and reference period when you quote it. Appearing in a current release does not turn a 2025 estimate into an observation about 2027, and it does not make the headline this publication's own research.
The restated base
IAB UK changed its methodology and restated 2024. It warns that the new series cannot be reconciled with earlier editions, so an 18% rise is a rise within the restated series and nowhere else.
Do not set the new figure beside a number from an older edition and call the gap growth. If an earlier edition is the only source available for a year, say so, and leave the comparison out rather than patching the two together. A buyer who needs a definition that survives procurement can start from the England buyer guide instead.
Four sentences that go wrong
The table pairs each careless sentence with the reason it fails and the wording that holds.
| Careless sentence | Why it fails | Wording that holds |
|---|---|---|
| The England market is worth £3.8 billion | The figure covers the UK | UK retail media advertising spend was £3.8 billion in 2025, per IAB UK |
| Spend will keep rising 18% a year | It is one historical rise on a restated base | Spend was up 18% on IAB UK's restated prior-year estimate |
| Retailers earned £3.8 billion | Spend is not media-owner receipts | Advertising spend is reported, receipts are not |
| 2025 beat the 2024 figure published earlier | The series was restated | Compare only within the restated series |
Why a wider projection does not fill the gap
The same release includes projections for the wider UK digital advertising market. Those statements remain projections at their stated scope, and no outcome in the forecast period is treated as observed here.
Such broad projections cannot establish an England retail media forecast without compatible disaggregation and methodology. Applying a guessed England share or importing a global growth rate would create an unsupported estimate. The sources checked also included AA/WARC's UK advertising expenditure forecasts, eMarketer's retail media estimates and IAB Europe's AdEx Benchmark. None was found to publish an England-specific value for 2027.
Spend, receipts and sales are different quantities
Keep market spending, media-owner receipts and merchandise sales apart, because a forecast for one cannot be renamed as another. Merchandise sales have their own official series: the ONS Retail Sales Index quality report covers retail sales output in Great Britain, with the strengths and limitations of the data.
No conversion ratio, exchange rate or revenue multiplier is assumed between them. Attribution adds one more trap: a projected sales-credit total does not establish additional sales caused by advertising, and the key metrics need definitions before any target is read from a projection.
Fields to capture before using any forecast
Before using a candidate forecast, capture its publisher, issue date, geography, market boundary, currency, value unit, baseline period, forecast horizon and method. Record assumptions, exclusions, revisions and uncertainty. This is a proposed evaluation record, not an official industry template.
Forecast specification to capture
- Publisher and issue date
- Geography and market boundary
- Currency and value unit
- Baseline period and horizon
- Method, assumptions and exclusions
- Revisions and uncertainty
An unknown value is not an estimate of nil activity. It means this review has not established evidence meeting the defined comparison. For the England fields, comparable market value, baseline and growth, retailer media revenue and revision method all stay unknown. A confidential dataset might answer what public records cannot, but no claim is made about one.
Until a comparable England dataset appears, do not attach probabilities or rank market opportunities from this gap. Readers should treat any market figure without a named publisher, dated release and stated method as unverified, and the wider UK trade estimate and proxies need the same reading.
Before you act
- Check the forecast geography matches England, not the wider UK.
- Confirm the market definition covers retailer or marketplace-controlled inventory.
- Keep market spending separate from media-owner receipts and merchandise sales.
- Quote the publisher, release date, unit and restated base beside every figure.
Common questions
How should the IAB UK figure be written in a report?
As UK retail media advertising spend of £3.8 billion in 2025, up 18% on IAB UK's restated prior-year estimate, with the release date of 3 March 2026. Call it a historical UK figure, not an England forecast, and note that the member-only full report was not accessed.
Can the wider UK digital advertising projections be used for England?
No. The projections in the same release cover the wider UK digital advertising market at their stated scope. They cannot establish an England retail media forecast without compatible disaggregation and methodology, and a guessed England share would create an unsupported estimate.
What does an unknown value mean?
It marks a comparison this review could not establish from public evidence. It does not mean nil activity. No confidential dataset was obtained, so the England value, growth rate and retailer revenue for 2027 stay unknown here.
